My First Stab at Political Punditry

So, I made the following predictions in response to Unikowsky's Swing State Sweepstakes last night and the new batch of battleground state polls seem to only confirm what I predicted last night. In short, I don't think this one will be close at all in the electoral college. Kerry will win big and will become the next President of the United States. This doesn't mean the election still won't be close, and we may have to wait a while Tuesday night for each state to be sorted out, but in the end I think Kerry will win alot of the close, key battleground states.

Kerry-306 Bush-232

Florida- Kerry
Iowa- Kerry
2nd Congressional District of Maine-Kerry
Minnesota- Kerry (not even close)
Nevada-Bush
New Hampshire- Kerry
New Mexico- Bush
Ohio- Kerry(in a squeaker)
Penn.-Kerry
Wisconsin-Kerry

As for the Senate, there are so many tossups and the Republicans have an advantage. It's going to be hard for the Dems to sweep the tossups to take unambiguous control of the Senate or to get 5 out of 6 and take control after Kerry is inaugerated AND the Massachusetts special election is through.

Here are the 6 races and my opinion on them

Colorado- Polls showed Pete Coors(R) narrowing the gap between himself and Ken Salazar (D) during mid-October, but recent polls show Salazar back up by about 8 points.....Democrats should pick this one up.

Alaska- The people in Alaska apparently don't like the Republican incumbent because she was appointed by her dad who is now governor. She has been down by about 3-4 points the entire race. Democrats should also pick this one up.

Florida-This race is a dead heat, but with reports coming from Florida reporting huge turnouts in the early voting (usually an advantage for Democrats) I'll predict this one goes Democratic.

North Carolina- This race is also a dead heat. The Democrat was up big for a while, but then the Republican came charging back, but then he never took a statistically significant lead. I don't know where to put this one, but since I'm thinking Kerry will have a big night I'll put this in the Democratic column.

Louisiana- There are two possible outcomes for election night. 1.) The Republican gets more than 50% of the vote and gets the seat. 2.) The Republican gets less than 50% of the vote and there is a runoff between him and the top Democratic candidate. Who the hell knows how to predict this one? Polls haven't shown the Republican with more than 50% so I guess this'll be a runoff in December.

Oklahoma-Crazy Conservative Democrat vs. Crazier Conservative Republican. I'm going to bet the people of Oklahoma like their Conservatives as crazy as possible.....this one goes Republican.


So my prediction for after election night will be this: 49 Democrats (48 if Kerry wins) 50 Republicans. Two races to be decided, one solid Democrat (either Kerry if he loses or his special election replacement from Massachusetts if he wins), one completely random.

As George Bush would say......I can run from these predictions but I can't hide.